Topics : Earlier on Tuesday, the head of the Robert Koch Institute for public health, Lothar Wieler, said local outbreaks had been a major factor behind a spike in the last few days in the coronavirus reproduction rate, currently estimated at 2.76.A reproduction rate, or ‘R’, of 2.76 means that 100 people who have contracted the virus infect, on average, 276 others.While Germany was at risk of a second coronavirus wave, Wieler said he was optimistic it could be prevented. “We will lift the measure as soon as possible, when we have certainty about the safety of the infection,” Laschet told a news conference. “It is a preventative measure.”More than 1,500 workers at a meat processing plant in Guetersloh have tested positive for COVID-19, as well as some of their family members and 24 people with no connection to the plant, Laschet said. Some of those workers live in Warendorf, about 30 km (19 miles) to the west.Laschet is a leading conservative contender to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel when her fourth term in office expires next year. Further outbreaks of new coronavirus in his state, Germany’s most populous, could damage his chances.Germany’s state premiers have agreed to act locally where possible to suppress the virus and there is no justification now for broader action, Laschet said. The western German state of North Rhine-Westphalia on Tuesday put two municipalities back into lockdown until June 30 after an outbreak of the new coronavirus at a meatpacking plant.Guetersloh, home to some 100,000 people, and the neighboring town of Warendorf, became the first areas in Germany to fall back under lockdown measures that had been gradually lifted since the end of April.State governor Armin Laschet, who had previously led calls for Germany to ease its lockdown restrictions, said bars, museums, galleries, cinemas, sports halls, gyms and swimming pools in Guetersloh and Warendorf would be closed, and picnics and barbecues prohibited.
As the nation prepares for England’s first World Cup semi-final since Italia 90, England fans frantically hope that the anxiety of the Colombia game isn’t replicated and Southgate’s side win in 90 minutes.However, should England’s fate see them head to spot kicks tonight, we take a look at the challenges that are presented to a trader as they look to price the dreaded penalty shootout. SBC spoke to Head of Compilation at Abelson Info, Jeevan Jeyaratnam who revealed his belief that a shootout is far from a lottery, as well as looking at some of the key factors in pricing penalties. SBC: In general, how difficult is it to price which side will win a penalty shootout? Jeevan Jeyaratnam: A common misconception is that a penalty shootout is a “lottery” with both sides having an equal chance. This is not far from the truth, however, if we breakdown the mechanics it is more nuanced than that.There are a couple of approaches to pricing a penalty shootout, the first, a more accurate but laborious process, involves using player parameters to determine the likely more experienced, and therefore successful penalty takers in each team- a “penalty prowess” player/team parameter. Generally, the team with better players are going to be favourites for the match, this team would also be slightly more likely to win a penalty shootout. Therefore, pre-game shootout odds should reflect that superiority, albeit if the game has gone all the way to penalties there is far less variance between the two teams’ chances. Most firms won’t be going to the detail of analysing each player’s parameters. So, method two, derived from the match supremacy, allows us to use the 50-50 idea as a benchmark, before adding a small deviation to allow for the superiority of one side over another. If we look at bet365’s prices, at 90mins, prior to the England v Colombia shootout, we can see England were regarded as slight favourite to win a shootout (3.10 v 3.25). At the end of the extra-time period the prices had snapped to 1.90 v 1.90, but a closer look at the Asian Handicap prices shows England at 1.875 (53.33%) v 1.975 (50.63%) for Colombia. This is as we would expect to see given that England were judged to have the superior team at kick-off. It is small but significant difference. The reason for the variation in pricing what is essentially the same market is likely due to margin and odds ladders, and possibly different supplier feeds. The Asian prices were bet to 103.96% while the top of the page “To Win Shootout” prices were bet to 105.2%. Always shop around!SBC: In the Croatia versus Denmark game, we saw Modric miss a penalty in the game before stepping up to take one in the shootout, can in-play penalties have an impact on pricing for a shootout? JJ: Invariably the team’s regular penalty taker is an experienced and competent individual, able to handle the pressure situation that comes with a penalty. Bearing this in mind, we wouldn’t expect to see this affect a player taking another penalty in the shootout. Of course, if we were updating individual player parameters in real-time, there would be an additional data point for both taker and keeper, but honestly these would have little impact on the pricing.SBC: Additionally, in that shootout we saw dominant performances from Schmeichel and Subasic, how much can a strong keeper sway a sides’ odds before heading into a shootout? JJ: Of course, a better than average goalkeeper is a benefit, and if we were allocating player/team “penalty prowess” parameters, this would be reflected. It is fair to say that most firms/supplier feeds will set up their penalty shootout prices as such;As a starting point we know that 75% (1.33) of penalties are scored and 25% missed (4.00). That sample is going to be mainly comprised of experienced penalty takers. So, to score the 1st pen, 1.30 (76%), to miss, 3.40 (29.41%) is a likely offer. The same prices would probably be used for the 2nd pen. After that we’d likely see some degradation in the quality of the taker, the offer might look like this; to score 1.33 (75%), to miss, 3.25 (30.76%). The “to score” price would continue to fractionally slide the further the shootout went. SBC: For the Russia Spain game it was clear for long periods, Russia were playing for penalties, can the moral victory of getting to penalties increase a smaller teams’ odds of winning a shootout? JJ: Psychologically I’m not sure of the impact of this, it isn’t something we’d worry too much about from a compilation perspective. I’d actually argue the opposite, in that the smaller teams may feel they have already achieved their goal before embarking on the arduous task of winning a shootout.SBC: Can the body language of players have any impact at all on the odds for a penalty shootout?JJ: We all recall times when we’ve said, “he doesn’t fancy this, I think he looks like missing”, and when that hunch is confirmed, we remember it. What we don’t recall with such clarity is the times that the player goes on to prove us wrong and score. This is evidence of confirmation bias and really has no bearing on price. If a player has agreed to step up for a penalty then there’s every chance he feels confident enough to convert it. There is, of course, extra pressure on penalties that must be scored in order to avoid defeat, likewise, those whose success can mean victory. At a very detailed level this could affect pricing but realistically, with margins, it isn’t something firms should be worrying about at this time. 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WASHINGTON (AP) — Protests were largely peaceful and the nation’s streets were calmer than they have been in days since the killing of George Floyd set off sometimes violent demonstrations against police brutality and injustice against African Americans.An earlier curfew and efforts by protesters to contain the violence prevented more widespread damage to businesses in New York City overnight. As of Wednesday morning, arrests grew to more than 9,000 nationwide since the unrest began in response to Floyd’s death May 25 in Minneapolis.There was a marked quiet compared with the unrest of the past few nights, which included fires and shootings in some cities. Many cities intensified their curfews, with authorities in Washington also ordering people off streets before sundown.A block away from the White House, thousands of demonstrators massed following a crackdown a day earlier when officers on foot and horseback aggressively drove peaceful protesters away from Lafayette Park, clearing the way for President Donald Trump to do a photo op at nearby St. John’s Church. Tuesday’s protesters faced law enforcement personnel who stood behind a black chain-link fence put up overnight to block access to the park.“Last night pushed me way over the edge,” said Jessica DeMaio, 40, of Washington, who attended a Floyd protest Tuesday for the first time. “Being here is better than being at home feeling helpless.”Pastors at the church prayed with demonstrators and handed out water bottles. The crowd remained in place after the city’s 7 p.m. curfew passed, defying warnings that the response from law enforcement could be even more forceful. But the people were peaceful, even polite. At one point, the crowd booed when a protester climbed a light post and took down a street sign. A chant went up: “Peaceful protest!”Pope Francis called for national reconciliation and peace, saying he has ’’witnessed with great concern the disturbing social unrest” in the United States in recent days.“My friends, we cannot tolerate or turn a blind eye to racism and exclusion in any form and yet claim to defend the sacredness of every human life,” the pope said during his weekly Wednesday audience, held in the presence of bishops due to coronavirus restrictions on gatherings.Trump, meanwhile, amplified his hard-line calls from Monday, when he threatened to send in the military to restore order if governors didn’t do it.“NYC, CALL UP THE NATIONAL GUARD,” he tweeted. “The lowlifes and losers are ripping you apart. Act fast!”Thousands of people remained in the streets of New York City Tuesday night, undeterred by an 8 p.m. curfew, though most streets were clear by early Wednesday. Midtown Manhattan was pocked with battered storefronts after Monday’s protests.Protests also passed across the U.S., including in Los Angeles, Miami, St. Paul, Minnesota, Columbia, South Carolina and Houston, where the police chief talked to peaceful demonstrators, vowing reforms.“God as my witness, change is coming,” Art Acevedo said. “And we’re going to do it the right way.”More than 20,000 National Guard members have been called up in 29 states to deal with the violence. Not in New York City, where Mayor Bill de Blasio has said he does not want the Guard, despite an offer from Gov. Andrew Cuomo.On Tuesday, Cuomo called what happened in the city Monday night “a disgrace.”“The NYPD and the mayor did not do their job,” Cuomo said at a briefing in Albany.He said his fellow Democrat underestimated the problem, and the nation’s largest police force was not deployed in sufficient numbers, though the city had said it doubled the usual police presence.Tuesday marked the eighth straight night of protests that began after a white Minneapolis police officer pressed his knee against Floyd’s neck while the handcuffed black man called out that he couldn’t breathe. The officer, Derek Chauvin, has been fired and charged with murder.The mother of George Floyd’s 6-year-old daughter, Gianna, said she wants the world to know that her little girl lost a good father.“I want everybody to know that this is what those officers took,” Roxie Washington said during a Minneapolis news conference, her daughter at her side. “I want justice for him because he was good. No matter what anybody thinks, he was good.”Some protesters framed the burgeoning movement as a necessity after seemingly incessant killings by police.“It feels like it’s just been an endless cascade of hashtags of black people dying, and it feels like nothing’s really being done by our political leaders to actually enact real change,” said Christine Ohenzuwa, 19, who attended a peaceful protest at the Minnesota state Capitol in St. Paul. “There’s always going to be a breaking point. I think right now, we’re seeing the breaking point around the country.”“I live in this state. It’s really painful to see what’s going on, but it’s also really important to understand that it’s connected to a system of racial violence,” she said.Meanwhile, governors and mayors, Republicans and Democrats alike, rejected Trump’s threat to send in the military, with some saying troops would be unnecessary and others questioning whether the government has such authority and warning that such a step would be dangerous.Such use of the military would mark a stunning federal intervention rarely seen in modern American history.A senior White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the president is not rushing to deploy the military and that his goal was to pressure governors to deploy more National Guard members.Nine states and the District of Columbia held presidential primaries on Tuesday, testing the nation’s ability to run elections while balancing a pandemic and sweeping social unrest. Joe Biden won hundreds more delegates, nearly enough to formally secure the Democratic presidential nomination.Also Tuesday, Minnesota opened an investigation into whether the Minneapolis Police Department has a pattern of discrimination against minorities.